Captain Sanogo’s Catch-22

The military thugs in Mali seem to have beaten far more than they could chew. From the swift change in tone of Capt Amadou Sanogo and his men, it does look like they wouldn’t have embarked on the adventure if they figured early that the ECOWAS axe would fall so heavily and swiftly on their heads.

ECOWAS leaders

Mid-rank soldiers of the Malian army toppled the elected president, Amadou Toure in March. The former president has since gone into hiding. Some of his ministers are under arrest.

Although the soldiers have since made a U-turn with promises to reinstate the Constitution they tossed into the bin when they annexed power two weeks ago, their motivations for the coup is not simply because the war in the north with the Tuaregs was badly prosecuted by the commander-in-chief, the former president.

The soldiers sought to appropriate power as they read the then scheduled April 29 election would have legitimized whoever was elected and make their thirst for power even more difficult to quench. Been a landlocked country and the northern half in the grip of the Tuareg secessionists, the soldiers are trapped between ECOWAS’ regional embargo and the rebels. 

Mauritania and Algeria also neighbours but who are not members of ECOWAS have adopted the regional body’s sanctions against Mali.

ECOWAS seem to have internalised recent lessons bothering on collective action in the region. Last year the regional grouping cut off former president of Cote d’Ivoire, Laurent Gbagbo, by freezing the country’s accounts at the height of the post-election crisis. 

The move quickly whittled Gbagbo’s influence over the south of the country before he was crushed by French soldiers and forces loyal to Alassane Ouattara.

Capt. Sanogo

One way out for the coup makers in Mali is for the army to accede to the demands of the regional body and return power to the former civilian administration. 

The other is to attempt to overrun the Tuareg rebels and recapture the northern territories to consolidate power.

The latter doesn’t look the least feasible as the balance of power now weighs heavily against the Army. Equally important is the fact that the Malian army doesn’t have access to the means, the war chest – finance, fuel, food and other logistics to pursue the war to any logical end given the ECOWAS sanctions.

Economically, Mali is not a very important player in West Africa let alone Africa. The economy is comparatively tiny albeit the landmass is huge and steeped in ancient history with Timbuktu as the centrepiece. Politically, however, the country has for the most part been a very important regional actor right from the days of independence struggle in the 1950s.

 
The next few days are critical to how the Malian conundrum is resolved and a redefinition of security in the West African sub-region. Mali’s example is set to also define how other regions of Africa respond to future military takeovers in their neighbourhoods.