Ethnic card and an African election

There are countless examples across Africa of how misguided and power hungry politicians and other public office holders played the ethnic card in a bid to wrestle power and how those irrational acts decimated their own nations.

Rwanda is perhaps the best example but so is Kenya after the 2007 elections in which up to 1,500 people died from ethnic clashes. Even the Ivorian war was in part ethnically executed.

It’s against this backdrop that I find a pronouncement by Ghana’s caretaker President, John Mahama, who is seeking to retain power during the country’s December 7, 2012 elections most offensive.

President Mahama

Addressing the chiefs and people of Nankpanduri in northern Ghana during a campaign tour of the Northern Region this week, the President of one of Africa’s brightest democracies, seemed to appeal for their votes – not so much based on his vision, policies and the record of the ruling party but – simply because of where he comes from, the Northern Region. The bait to his ethnic cleavage, his kith and kin, is not only Machiavellian but also obnoxious.

Ironically, three of the four candidates that participated in the IEA presidential debate last Friday are from the northern half of the country but I don’t quite think that Ghanaians were bothered by that as much as the vision, policies and ideas they espoused on that platform.

With that unguarded statement, President Mahama has doubtlessly and quite deliberately so, drawn many Ghanaians away from the policy discourse they are craving for, to their differences, superficial as they are.

But Mahama is not alone in playing the ethnic card in this election. His main opponent, Nana Akuffo Addo in this election, a few months ago also made an ethnically charged statement trying to distinguish his Akan ethnic group from other ethnic groups in the country.

Nana Addo

The PPP’s Paa Kwesi Nduom has also made some ethnically charged in his recent campaigns. In a campaign stump speech a week ago in Cape Coast, capital of the Central Region, Nduom urged his supporters to ignore ‘Adze wo fie oye’ (understood to be a reference to the vice president Paa Kwesi Amissah Arthur who is also from Cape Coast) and adopt ‘Adze papa wo fie oye’.

Nduom reframed his statement by urging his supporters: ‘Don’t just vote for a Fanti, but a Ghanaian who is competent….’ But by the time Nduom reframed his message the harm had possibly been done.

Ghana certainly deserves better. There are over 10 major ethnic groups in Ghana with many more sub-regroups.

Ghana elections: first of three debates, no clear winner

Ghanaians saw four of the main contenders vying for the presidency at a national debate last night on national television. It was the second real presidential debate since the country’s return to constitutional rule in 1992.

Ghanaians go the polls to elect a president and parliamentarians on December 7, 2012. The three big issues of the 2012 election are the economy, jobs and education. But the first of the three 2012 debates focused on the economy, social sector and private sector development/industrialization. 

Although the organizers initially listed foreign policy, it never really was on the menu last night.

Tuesday’s debaters were the care-take president John Mahama of the NDC, Dr Abu Forster of the CPP, the PNC’s Hassan Ayariga and Nana Addo of the NPP.

Here is my take on how the candidates faired in the first debate.

Abu Sakara’s delivery was brilliant: articulate and largely level-headed. He attacked, especially the president, without coming across as angry, overly ambitious or even worse, presumptuous. He brought his superior intelligence to the table. He reframed ‘problematic’ questions intelligently without saying so before answering them. I was only shocked at his wild take on the history of the CPP as a pro-private sector party. I guess he was only trying to distance himself from the statism of the past.

Nana Addo obviously was on the attack half of the time and that may have excited many, particularly the NPP base. Did it work? May be yes, may be no. Seriously, I am not so sure how that will play on the minds of undecided voters.

I thought Nana’s framing of the big picture – move GH out of export of raw commodity dependence to a light industrial manufacturing economy that adds value to provide sustainable jobs and improve quality of life of the average person – was great. But he seemed to have fallen short rather badly when it came to filling in the details. The ‘details’ he offered were either sketchy or contradictory or both. The linkage he tried drawing between his educational policy/programme to the structural transformation of the economy lacked depth, if you like, unconvincing.

Generally, he’s not a fiery person but I was shocked at President Mahama’s sluggish delivery. Was he thinking he had the presidency already in the bag? His framing of the big picture was uninspiring at best and quite frankly dubious. Albeit, he later provided elements that fit well into an economy that is ready to structurally take-off, transform into a full-fledged middle nation and is willing and capable of competing on the global stage. Sorry to say, i really Mahama is withering quite a number of potential voters who thought he was an excellent candidate after Mills.

Thing about this sort of debates is that substance matter and so does appearance (not so much looks) but connection to the population/viewers/listeners. Mahama didn’t sound convincing even with the figures. He didn’t seem like he really wants the job, that he deserves the job. Sakara was very methodical, clinical and compelling more than half of the time. Nana Addo’s passion meant he was sometimes very persuasive if even overly hawkish and downright annoying.

Hassan Ayariga provided comic relief. But why was his wife covering her face each time it was Ayariga's turn to answer a question? Ayariga clearly has inherited the domestication agenda left behind by Dan Lartey late leader of the GCPP.

It was a shame, the PPP’s Paa Kwesi Nduom was not allowed on the debate platform. According to the organizers, the Ridge-based Institute of Economic Affairs, the platform is designed for only parties contesting the elections that have at least one MP in parliament.

Two more presidential debates and one vice presidential debate are coming up. The first proper presidential debate was held in 2008. The 2000 and 2004 debates did not include some major parties.

Bangkok fight

Bangkok, Thailand may be the world's capital of 'smiles' but it's no smiling business at the climate change negotiations here. It's another big bare knuckle fight over the future of the earth.

Yours truly heading into the climate talks in the world's capital of 'smiles' - Bangkok

Parties, mainly Annex I (rich countries) have clashed with non-Annex I Parties (developing countries) yet again. Negotiating parties are split down the middle pretty much on every single substantive issue at the informal inter-sessional on climate change underway in Bangkok, Thailand. It's more than a fight over agenda and/or process. It's really about the future of the planet, how to save it from possible meltdown. 

Rich countries want two of the three negotiating tracks terminated at the end of 2012 in Doha, at COP 18, but developing countries which stand to lose the most from an overheating planet, think and rightly so, that the work streams of these two tracks (AWG-KP and AWG-LCA) under the Bali Action Plan have yet to be completed and therefore can and should only be closed when they have delivered on their mandates as per the Climate Convention. The third and newest work stream is the AWG-ADP (Durban decision).

Shutting down the work of the AWG-KP and the AWG-LCA at this stage will effectively leave rich countries off the hook to jump ship (to the AWG-ADP) without actually honouring their prior international commitments under these two tracks. And the big question is what will be the guarantee that any agreements reached under the Durban mandate in future will be honoured by wealthy countries given their failure, morally and legally, to do what they pledged to undertake under the two older negotiating tracks. So, this fight is about trust as much as it is about substance.

Ghana’s new veep

Ghana has a new vice president. Paa Kwesi Amissah-Arthur was vetted by Parliament and sworn-in on Monday, August 6. His appointment was necessitated by the accession of John Mahama as president of Ghana following the sudden death of President John Atta Mills on July 24, 2012.

Amissah-Arthur

 

Until his new appointment, Amissah-Arthur, 61, a former deputy minister of finance, was the governor of the central bank, the Bank of Ghana, (BoG). Forget about the fact that he’s not a charismatic person. Ghanaians have now gotten used to having non-charismatic leaders.

His appointment has generated mixed reaction from within the ruling NDC party. I think the larger Ghanaian public is quite unsure about what he brings to the table albeit he has played critical roles in crafting the country’s economic path over the better part of the last three decades. He spent about half of his entire working life at the Ministry of Finance.

Perhaps what Ghanaians can relate to most is his last posting as governor of the BoG. Amissah-Arther’s tenure at the BoG has seen the national currency, the Cedi, decline sharply against nearly all major trading currencies especially since the beginning of 2012.

Generally, the national currency has tended to come under severe pressure in an election year as this. And so there’s probably nothing new in the latest decline. What is new however is that the person who presided over this decline is now the vice president and the de facto head of the government’s Economic Management Team. A case of more of the same? It could be but not necessarily.

How this plays in the campaigns leading to the December 7, 2012 elections remains to be seen.

Mahama and Amissah-Arthur will serve out what remains of President John Atta Mills’ mandate. They will get the nod of the ruling party in September to contest the December polls together as the party’s presidential candidate(s).

President Mills’s departure, the orderly transition and impending presidential and parliamentary elections in December have focused minds on the health of Ghana’s democracy. The country has made some remarkable progress on the democratic path as exemplified by the 2008 elections, transfer of power and the smooth process leading to the assumption of office by a new president following the sudden death of Mills.

However Ghana’s democratic governance is beset with some deep-seated political problems. The policy making process is heavily centralized and the executive president is extremely powerful, too powerful for the good of the country. The system has also bred a strong party loyalty. The system of political patronage is neo-patrimonial, akin to single party form of governance. Equally debilitating is the weak institutional capacity at both the regulatory and political levels.

I will tackle some of these in a later blog.

Rawlings bucks tradition to draw first blood

Jerry Rawlings’ uncharitable and highly controversial comments about Mills and the cause of his death have drawn the ire of not only the family of the late leader but also the larger Ghanaian public.

Fact is, for a number of reasons, Ghanaians culturally, do not speak ill of the dead especially if the body has not been interred.

But unsurprisingly, Rawlings also left a cheeky comment when he signed the Book of Condolence for the late President on Friday, July 27.

Jerry Rawlings

Rawlings wrote: Fare thee well Prof. Let's hope we will do better at keeping those with destructive tendencies away and out of the national endeavours. Help to provide JM (John Mahama) with whatever guidance you can offer from where you are since you are now free - JJ Rawlings, July 27, 2012.

Rawlings won and governed a second term in office (before bowing out as demanded by the country’s constitution) under the 4^th republican constitution with Prof John Atta Mills as his vice president in 1996. Against the will of the rank and file of the NDC party, of which he is founder, Rawlings anointed Mills as his successor at Swedru in 1998 in the now famous “Swedru Declaration”.

But Rawlings became, by far, the fiercest critic of President Mills and his administration when the latter took office after the 2008 elections – until his death last Tuesday, July 24, 2012.

Actually I’ve been wondering the whole morning what non-confrontational Mills’ reaction would be like if he woke up the next minute to read or hear these comments by Rawlings.

Most certainly Mills, if he hadn’t changed, would simply say something to this effect: WE NEED PEACE. LET’S THEREFORE NOT DO ANYTHING TO UNDERMINE THE PEACE OF THIS COUNTRY!!!

Twists in the succession plot as Ghanaians mourn Mills

As the country mourns the passing of its President, John Evans Fiifi Atta Mills, Ghanaians are enamoured with the kind words, sympathies, and deep admiration for Ghana and Ghanaians expressed by millions around the world especially from the streets of other African countries.

A couple of comments on Kenya’s leading daily, the Daily Nation sums up the heartfelt sentiments:

Kinoti Kithuri wrote: What else would a nation ask for then a peaceful rest of their president and peaceful respectful transition to a new president as a means of better period of mourning. May God be your peace, Ghana.

Faboge also wrote: Lovely country, people and a nation of good governance, Africa mourns the loss of your democrat.

Let’s focus on a much narrower but critical subject: Who takes over as vice president to President Mahama as the ruling party heads for the December presidential and parliamentary elections.

Whoever gets anointed has to serve with the new president the remaining term of President Mills as well as be able to assist Mahama to retain the presidency at the December polls. At least that will be the aim of the party.

Since the president’s death a tall list has emerged of potential vice presidents to President John Mahama. Some of the names are downright ridiculous and I can’t imagine why anyone would suggest such candidates. Some suggested names clearly have the talent but not the temperament. Others also have the temperament but not the brains. Another set combine both the right temperament and the talent and I think it is from this last group that the country and the new president will be better served to pick from.

The NDC is clearly not short of brilliant brains and hands to couple the new president to run the country even more efficiently and professionally following the untimely death of Mills.

Here is my take on three of the many potential veeps to President Mahama.

Let me start by pointing out a few issues that won’t inform President Mahama’s choice of vice president albeit in ordinary times these same issues would have been critical: religious beliefs of the candidate and the freshness of the person to party politics.

The religious beliefs of the person won’t be an issue not least because both president Mills and president Mahama were Christians and that caused no problems for them – be it in the 2008 campaigns or in office but also the freshness of the person to party politics.

Given the closeness of the December general elections, Mahama and the NDC are unlikely to go for a truly fresh face/talent or a highly polarizing figure. He is hardly erratic but I won’t be surprised if Mahama decides to pleasantly surprise most Ghanaians by tapping a fairly neutral but popular and widely respected and accomplished academic such as Prof. Kofi Sefah-Dedeh who has been central in the delivery of some of the most strategic tangible achievements of Mills’ “Better Ghana Agenda”.

 

Hannah Tetteh

Current Minister of Trade and Industry and former MP.

Hannah Tetteh

Strengths:

·         Her gender is a big asset. This is no tokenism. Ghanaian women have been central to the country’s political process and yet not one has had a decent shot at the top two jobs in the country. Could this be the time?

·         Excellent grasp of issues along with her law background;

·         Rated as one of the few high performing of Mills’ appointees;

·         Good relations with the business class;

·         Good inter-personal skills;

·         Love for made-in-Ghana products especially clothing;

·         Former MP and experienced legislature with contacts across the political divide;

·         From late president’s region.

Weaknesses:

·         Can be dismissive sometimes

·         A shade to the right of politics away from the centre-left that Mahama leans to (and the NDC claims to stand for)

Dr. Kwesi Botchwey

An advisor to late President Mills and member of his economic team

Kwesi Botchwey

Strengths:

·         Pragmatist;

·         Steady and experienced economic hand;

·         Excellent grasp of issues and a hard hitter, politically-speaking;

·         Academic with good networks;

·         Articulate, friendly and a great communicator;

·         Hails from late president’s home region;

·         Has been influential in Mills’ stabilization of the economy.

Weakness:

·         His central role in PNDC/NDC governments may arm the opposition against the NDC;

·         Perceived to be too cozy with Western multinationals and IFIs; &

·         Long absence from frontline domestic politics.

PV Obeng

Currently chairman of the National Development Planning Commission and advisor to late President Mills.

PV Obeng

Strengths:

·         Still close to the Rawlingses and could work to bring them back on board

·         Big brain, intelligent & excellent grasp of issues and politics

·         At ease with the big picture issues and tiny details too and comfortable in the limelight

·         Technocrat and strategically minded

·         Business savvy and would be loved especially by the top tier of the business elite and international investors

·         Experienced in governance at the highest level as the de facto Prime Minister under the Rawlings military regime

·         Friendly and articulate and charismatic

Weaknesses:

·         Tainted past: The Commission on Human Rights and Administrative Justice (CHRAJ) investigated him extensively in the 1990s although found insufficient incriminating evidence to recommend his prosecution

·         Hails from Ashanti Region, the World Bank of the leading opposition party, NPP now led by Nana Akuffo Addo, a very formidable candidate. The NDC can’t expect to gain so many votes in Ashanti to negate the votes it could lose in the Central and Western Regions if it chooses PV.

Other names that have come up are: Goosie Tanoh; Ekwow Spio Garbrah; Ofosu Ampofo, Mike Hammah, Alban Bagbin, Kwesi Ahwoi and Kwabena Duffour.

These are all great talents but the time is rather short in my opinion to gamble on any of these. Point is there are issues around every one of these guys that requires some ironing out and the five months to the elections is too short to deal with some of the issues within the party first and then communicate sufficiently and convincingly to Ghanaian voters.

Finally, my pick will be Hannah Tetteh first and Botchwey second. “A+” rated in the President Mills’ cabinet, she is a good campaigner besides her other strengths I’ve listed above. She is beautiful in a non aggressive way. Contrast her with out of favour former A-G and Minister of Justice, Betty Mould Iddrisu (and Nana Rawlings) and you get what I mean.

 

True Hannah can be boring when she chooses to, but let’s face it Ghanaians care less about that for as long as the person can deliver. Check out President Kufuor, President Mills and even the new head of state, President Mahama. They all have/had this stiff upper lip and are largely uncharismatic but a good section of Ghanaians love/loved them.

Will Hannah get the nod? I’m not sure! Botchwey? Umm yep because he is a much more formidable candidate.

Death of President Mills, Ghana’s seamless transition

The shocking news of the death of Ghana’s president, Professor John Atta Mills, 68, filtered through the rather thick grey, cloudy and partly wet Tuesday mid-afternoon. Across the country and the political divide, his death has left Ghanaians in grieve.

Late President Mills

Seven days of morning has been declared. Opposition parties have also suspended their electioneering campaigns in a mark of respect.

That the president was not in perfect health was a fact known to most Ghanaians. In fact over the past several months rumours swirled the media of his death but each time Mills came out to disprove it and so even when the news broke of his death on Tuesday at the 37 Military Hospital, one of Ghana’s leading health facilities, many remained unconvinced until the Chief of Staff at the residency issued a press statement around 16.00 GMT.

Mills welcomes Obama in Accra

Earlier in June, the president returned from a medical checkup in the United States and declared he was well. He even embarked on a short aerobics, jogging on the tarmac of the Kotoka International Airport on arrival.

His demise on July 24 came as a huge surprise and a massive blow to the country.

This blog is not a review of his legacy as such but Prof. Mills, Asomdwehene (king of peace) as he was better known by Ghanaians, will be remembered for a number of things at home. As a person and president, the tax law professor was a typical Ghanaian gentleman: calm, honest, humble, diligent and God-fearing. 

 Presidency confirms his death

I am reliably informed that around midday, the president complained of pain at the back of his neck while working behind his desk in his office at the presidency – before heading to Nigeria later in the day. Doctors were called in. But it is even likely that he died at the presidency before being dispatched to the 37 Military Hospital 15 minutes drive from the presidency. He suffered from throat cancer. He also had difficulty with one eye.

As an evangelical Christian, his faith in God was unquestionable and he seized on every opportunity to thank God for His grace and mercies upon this country.

The soft spoken late president would also be remembered for his punctuality and hands-on attitude to work. His three-and-half years in office saw the national economy grow at an unprecedented 13.5 per cent and inflation drop to its lowest rate in the country’s history. Inflation has since inched up a bit to about 9.4 per cent by the end of June.

At his inauguration into office on January 7, 2009, he promised to be “father to all” and he lived up to his promise by being deeply passionate about the wellbeing of Ghanaians. Many have said he could not translate the passion and impressive economic indicators to tangible improvement in the quality of life of the ordinary Ghanaian.

This morning, a day after his death, many of his country men and women are clad in mourning clothes from the TV morning shows through the streets to offices, both public and private.

An optimist, Prof Mills had a calming influence on Ghana’s sometimes overly heated party politics. Albeit towards to the end he seemed a deeply unhappy, even irritated a man, as his political opponents and indeed some from high up within his own NDC party ranks openly attacked him on all fronts – his politics, policies and his person. He fell out with his former boss and mentor, former President Jerry Rawlings and his wife.

But Rawlings quietly and surprisingly visited Mills at the presidency barely two weeks before his death, possibly to patch up their strained relations.

Anyways, with just about five months to the next presidential and parliamentary elections in December, his untimely death posses some serious challenges to his party but much less so to the country.

Seamless transition

Barely six hours after his death and four hours of its confirmation by the presidency, Mills’ vice president, John Mahama, 53, was sworn-in as president in Parliament in accordance with Ghana’s constitution without the slightest glitch.

Mills' successor: President John Mahama

His death tosses up the chances of the ruling NDC to retain power at the December general elections in which Mills was set to contest.

Mahama is likely to be endorsed by the party hierarchy to contest the presidency on the NDC’s ticket.  It is the most logical thing to do, given the late stage of electioneering campaigns and the fact that Mahama was indeed running the country in all but name even while president Mills was in office.

Mills’ successor is widely respected right around the country and within the political and business classes. A former MP, he is regarded as another well-mannered, cool-headed, even- keeled and fine gentleman with a good grasp of issues.

He is lot media savvy having served as Communications Minister under the Rawlings administration. He read his inaugural speech in Parliament last night from his tablet.

Mahama could be cast as a young, highly respected and more energetic leader capable of connecting well with all Ghanaians, a “brother to all”! His main contender, Nana Akuffo Addo, 68, who was beaten by Mills in the 2008 presidential elections by the tiniest of margins, is a formidable candidate.

How the NDC manages its internal rifts will also be critical. For sometime now, Mahama has fallen out with the Rawlingses and so even though his new office offers him a fresh opportunity to reset their relations and renew strained ties, it is unlikely that he will easily win former president Rawlings and his wife. The Rawlings have set up a new political party, the National Democratic Party (NDP) although they have not pulled out of the NDC. The Rawlingses have not openly identified with the new party neither have they denied association.

Crucially, who Mahama picks as vice president to serve out the remaining term of the late president could play a decisive role to flesh out his strategy and chances in December. Two names have already popped up and these are PV Obeng, former de facto prime minister under the Rawlings military regime and Dr Kwesi Botchwey, a former finance minister (also under Rawlings) and an academic.

The death of President Mills’ and the swift seamless transition has galvanized the nation to consolidate the sense of unity and patriotism. It is fair to imagine at this stage that this half of the electioneering campaign even it resumes will be the most civil, sober and exciting in the run up to December.

Rest in perfect peace dear leader, Prof. John Fiifi Atta Mills!

Annex I parties kick-start Bonn blame game

There’s been hardly any movement at the Bonn climate talks since the last post 12 hours ago even as the meeting draws to a close.

If anything, it is that the blame game has kicked-in in earnest with both the EU and United States ploughing into China, accusing the Asian country in particular of ‘hardening’ its stance on how not to launch talks under the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform (AWG-ADP).

US delegation in Bonn

But it is not only China that maintains that the issue of pre-2020 mitigation be completed under the two existing mandates (AWG-LCA and AWG-KP) which are already working on the issue, a large number of developing countries from all regions of the global south (which make up about four billion of the world’s population are united in their call on Annex I countries to honour their legally binding international obligations under the climate change convention and protocol.

Annex I Parties’ mischaracterization of these developing countries as ‘blockers' is not only misleading but is also hollow and scandalous.

**A plenary is scheduled for later tonight in search of a breakthrough after a series of meetings on Wednesday collapsed. Throughout today, May 24, Sandea De Wet, interim Chair of the ADP from South Africa, has been in closed informal sessions with some parties. 

There’s even the possibility that parties could be forced to a vote on the issue. If that happens, it will be the first since the UN climate change process began two decades ago.